2023 First Fantasy Football Thoughts: AFC/NFC East

by Michael Nazarek - 7/10/2023

My First Thoughts series returns this month for 2023! The 4th of July has come and gone and training camps open in just a few short weeks. The first cut of our Pre-Season Draft Guide has been released, so the plan for this series is to whip through all 32 teams before the end of the month. As in years past, this series of articles will begin in the East and I'll work my way West. Let's get right to it, there's a lot to discuss...

 

AFC EAST

 

Buffalo Bills: The Bills failed to make it to the Super Bowl again, but the team is still a threat to win it all in 2023. Stud QB Josh Allen is an elite fantasy producer in the league, so there is no issue here. In the running game, RB Devin Singletary is gone, as second-year RB James Cook is set to start, but share the workload with newly signed RB Damien Harris. Unfortunately, that makes neither a solid fantasy starter in most leagues. RB Nyheim Hines also returns to steal a few touches here and there. In the passing game, veteran WR Stefon Diggs returns as the #1 elite fantasy producing WR, but WR Gabriel Davis struggled in his first full year as the team's WR2. As a result, there is interest from the team to sign veteran WR DeAndre Hopkins, but he's simply asking for too much money for that to happen. As such, Davis remains an inconsistent WR3 for fantasy at best. WR Isaiah McKenzie is gone, as the team signed WR Trent Sherfield and WR Deonte Harty to battle for the #3 WR job. The big move in the draft involved moving up to take rookie TE Dalton Kincaid to play alongside TE Dawson Knox in the passing game. Kincaid has some major talent, so if he gets off to a hot start, he could push to be the #2 option in the passing game by midseason if not sooner. As for Knox, he is simply an inconsistent threat for fantasy in any given week. At kicker, PK Tyler Bass returns, and remains an elite fantasy producer in this high-powered offense.

 

Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins made the playoffs in 2022, but failed to reach the big game. QB Tua Tagovailoa blew up last year, before multiple concussions ended his season early. He is a top 10 fantasy QB in talent, but one more big hit to the head, and his career could be over, so draft him accordingly. In the running game, RB Raheem Mostert and RB Jeff Wilson Jr. return, but will share touches with rookie RB Devon Achane, making none of them solid fantasy producers. Of course, the team could still sign free-agent RB Dalvin Cook to start, so I'd be careful about taking a Dolphins RB in my draft right now. In the passing game, veteran WR Tyreek Hill and WR Jaylen Waddle have quickly developed into an elite fantasy duo, making both top 25 overall draft picks in PPR leagues. WR Cedrick Wilson and newly signed WR Braxton Berrios will battle for the WR3 job, but don't expect much production here statistically, as most targets will go to Hill and Waddle. At tight end, TE Mike Gesicki is gone, leaving TE Durham Smythe, TE Eric Saubert, and TE Tyler Kroft to fight for the leftovers. PK Jason Sanders returns as the kicker, as he's a borderline fantasy starter in larger leagues.

 

New England Patriots: The Patriots failed to make the playoffs in 2022, a signal that they are no longer a powerhouse team in the NFL. QB Mac Jones struggled to produce much of anything in 2022, but the team is sticking with him, for now. Bottom Line: He is not a fantasy option for 2023. In the running game, RB Damien Harris is gone, leaving RB Rhamondre Stevenson as the do-all everything back for the team in 2023. He is a 2^nd/3^rd round fantasy draft pick in 12-team leagues this summer. Backups RB Pierre Strong and RB Ty Montgomery return, but this is obviously Stevenson's team. In the passing game, WR Jakobi Meyers and WR Nelson Agholor are gone, as the team signed WR JuJu Smith-Schuster to boost the corps, and extended inconsistent WR DeVante Parker. WR Kendrick Bourne is likely to fill the WR3 role. All this could change if veteran free-agent WR DeAndre Hopkins signs. At tight end, TE Hunter Henry returns, while the team traded TE Jonnu Smith and signed TE Mike Gesicki in free agency. Henry and Gesicki are both fantasy backups, since scoring from both will be spotty at best. Veteran PK Nick Folk returns, but will battle rookie RB Chad Ryland for the kicking job. Stay tuned, as the winner could be a bit of a fantasy force in 2023.

 

New York Jets: The Jets failed to field a winner again in 2021, but there is hope that newly acquired QB Aaron Rodgers can turn things around with added help from the staunch defense. Rodgers is a borderline fantasy starter in 12-team leagues this summer. In the running game, rookie RB Breece Hall (torn ACL) may or may not start the season on the field of play. That makes him a risky fantasy proposition. Backup RB Michael Carter and RB Zonovan Knight will fill in as needed, barring a late signing of free-agent RB Dalvin Cook. In the passing game, WR Elijah Moore is gone, as WR Garrett Wilson is the new clear WR1 for this passing game. He should be a top 10 fantasy WR with Rodgers at the helm. WR Allen Lazard will be the WR2, while WR Mecole Hardman and WR Randall Cobb will battle for the WR# job. WR Corey Davis returns as the veteran presence to settle the group. At tight end, veterans TE C.J. Uzomah and TE Tyler Conklin will share targets once again in 2023, making neither good fantasy options. Veteran PK Greg Zuerlein returns, and should get a boost in production with Rodgers at the helm, making him a borderline fantasy starter for 12-team leagues this summer.

 

NFC EAST

 

Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys made the playoffs last year, but once again didn't come close to winning their way into the big game. That said, QB Dak Prescott remains far from the issue. He is a solid fantasy starter in any scoring system. In the running game, RB Ezekiel Elliott was let go, so RB Tony Pollard moves to the front of the line. He showed much greater explosion with the football in 2022 than Zeke, which led to Zeke's release. Pollard is a clear top 12 RB for fantasy in 2023. The team drafted RB Deuce Vaughn to play alongside Pollard, but he will have to compete against RB Malik Davis to earn his role. I do like Vaughn more in this case. At wideout, WR CeeDee Lamb returns as the team's new #1 WR, while WR Michael Gallup will see action alongside newly signed WR Brandin Cooks. Cooks still has a lot of speed, and in this offense, he could surprise for fantasy. WR James Washington and WR Noah Brown are gone, so it's pretty clear the top three WRs will carry most of the workload in the passing game. At tight end, TE Dalton Schultz is gone, leaving second-year TE Jake Ferguson and rookie TE Luke Schoonmaker to man the position. Ferguson is likely to start come week #1, but Schoonmaker could take over at some point in 2023. The team currently has two no-names set to battle for the kicking job, so keep your eyes on this situation later this summer.

 

New York Giants: My favorite team actually made the playoffs and won a game before losing to the Eagles last year. HC Brian Daboll turned things around in a hurry and the charge was led by a developing QB Daniel Jones, whose running ability was used to the max to get the team big wins and was re-signed a new long-term deal. In fantasy terms, Jones remains only a fantasy backup, but one who will pop now and again. In the running game, RB Saquon Barkley also rebounded with a big season, and has been franchised. Hopefully, he reaches a new long-term deal by the deadline later this month. Otherwise, it appears that he will play on the tag for 2023. He's an obvious first round drat pick for fantasy in 12-team leagues. RB Matt Breida returns to back up Barkley, while RB Eric Gray was drafted for depth. In the passing game, WR Kadarius Toney and WR Kenny Golladay are both long gone, leaving WR Darius Slayton, WR Wan'Dale Robinson (torn ACL), WR Sterling Shepard (torn ACL), WR Isaiah Hodgins, and newly signed WR Parris Campbell as the meat and potatoes of the WR corps. None of these players rate in my top 50 fantasy WRs due to the health/situation surrounding this passing game. At tight end, veteran TE Darren Waller was acquired via trade and some believe he will lead the entire receiving corps in catches in 2023. In fantasy terms, a healthy Waller rates in the top 10 TEs. TE Daniel Bellinger returns as the back up to Waller, killing most of his fantasy value. PK Graham Gano returns as a quality kicker, and a low-end PK1 for fantasy in 2023.

 

Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles lost in the big game to end their 2022 season. QB Jalen Hurts quickly solidified his star status with a top 3 QB fantasy finish, mostly on the back of his scoring abilities near the goal line. He's obviously an elite fantasy producer. In the running game, RB Miles Sanders is gone, as the team acquired RB D'Andre Swift from the Lions to pair with RB Kenneth Gainwell, newly signed RB Rashaad Penny, and RB Boston Scott. Swift rates as a top 40 fantasy RB right now, but injuries have always hampered his ability to produce consistent numbers for his owners. Penny is likely the primary handcuff to Swift, but injuries have taken a big toll on his career as well. In the passing game, veteran WR A.J. Brown and WR DeVonta Smith form one of the most productive fantasy WR duos in the league. They are both top 25 overall player draft picks for fantasy this summer. WR Quez Watkins and newly signed WR Olamide Zaccheaus will battle for the leftovers at WR3. WR Greg Ward returns for depth. At tight end, TE Dallas Goedert returns again as the starter, keeping him a top 5 fantasy TE. PK Jake Elliott returns, as a fairly solid kicker, but one who usually doesn't see enough scoring chances to make very much of a fantasy impact. I do not see that changing much in 2023.

 

Washington Commanders: Washington struggled again in 2022 and failed to make the playoffs. QB Carson Wentz is OUT and QB Sam Howell is in? Yup. At least entering camp Howell has the edge to start. QB Jacoby Brissett was signed to compete with Howell this summer. Watch and learn here. In the running game, RB Brian Robinson returns as the starter, while RB Antonio Gibson will be used liberally to keep Robinson fresh and use his pass-catching abilities. Neither back is in my top 25 RBs for fantasy this summer. RB J.D. McKissic is gone and could be forced to retire due to multiple neck injuries. In the passing game, WR Terry McLaurin returns as the WR1, but with uncertainty at QB, his fantasy value hovers around only a decent WR2 level. WR Jahan Dotson surprised in 2022, and has the talent to be the WR2 in this offense, and fantasy sleeper in drafts this summer. WR Curtis Samuel is the slot guy, and will make some big plays here and there, but consistency will also be an issue with him. WR Dyami Brown returns for depth. At tight end, TE Logan Thomas has labored through injury after injury, but returns as the starter. His fantasy value is so low, you can easily wait until the final rounds of your draft to take him. TE John Bates is the backup. PK Joey Slye is the kicker, but is unlikely to see enough scoring chances for serious fantasy consideration.

 

That's a wrap for the two Eastern divisions. Be sure to join me over the coming days as I offer my First Thoughts on the other six divisions. All comments, complimentary or otherwise, are always welcome via our contact page. Let's talk fantasy football!

 

End.

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