2023 First Fantasy Football Thoughts: AFC/NFC North

by Michael Nazarek - 7/13/2023

It's time to take a closer look at the North Division teams to see how they are shaping up in July. Let’s get right to it…

 

AFC NORTH

 

Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens made the playoffs in 2022, but with QB Lamar Jackson (knee) injured, they lost and failed to make the big game. Jackson was franchised, held out much of the off-season, but got a long-term deal done, so he's locked in as the present and long-term QB for the team. As for fantasy, he is a dynamic talent, but he's been injured a lot recently, and is still fairly inaccurate with his passes, so I'm taking a pass on him this summer. In the running game, RB J.K. Dobbins and RB Gus Edwards both return and are likely to continue sharing touches, making neither top 20 fantasy RBs in 2023. RB Justice Hill returns for depth. In the passing game, WR Rashod Bateman returns, while the team also signed WR Odell Beckham Jr. to start alongside Bateman. That pushes WR Devin Duvernay back into a part time WR3 role and kick returner. As for Bateman and OBJ, I prefer youth over experience and injury in this case. In fact, rookie WR Zay Flowers seems like a better fantasy prospect this season than an aging OBJ. At tight end, TE Mark Andrews returns as the primary scoring threat in the passing game. Andrews is an elite talent and top five fantasy TE in 2023, provided he stays healthy. TE Isaiah Likely returns to back up and play alongside Andrews. Veteran PK Justin Tucker returns, coming off another big season. With this team likely to continue to struggle in the red zone, Tucker remains an elite fantasy kicker for 2023.

 

Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals fell short of the Super Bowl in 2022, but it wasn't the fault of QB Joe Burrow, who remains an elite fantasy QB talent with top-notch weapons in his arsenal. He is a top 4 fantasy QB, but is not a part of the top Tier, so you should be able to wait until the 4^th round in most cases to draft him. In the running game, veteran RB Joe Mixon returns as the solid starter, provided his contract gets worked out, something that likely will take place later this month. If he sticks, then he's a borderline RB1 for fantasy in 12-team leagues. RB Samaje Perine is gone, so RB Trayveon Williams will back up Mixon, or get first crack to replace him if the team moves on from Mixon. Rookie RB Chase Brown would become a factor if Mixon moves on. In the passing game, WR Ja'Marr Chase, WR Tee Higgins, and WR Tyler Boyd return as one of the best 1-2-3 trios at wideout in the league. Chase and Higgins are both likely to finish as top 15 fantasy WRs in PPR leagues, while Boyd is a decent WR4 with some upside. WR Stanley Morgan Jr and WR Trenton Irwin provide depth. At tight end, TE Hayden Hurst is gone, as the team signed TE Irv Smith Jr. to start, while TE Devin Asiasi and TE Drew Sample will back him up. Smith has sleeper potential, much like Hurst did last summer. PK Evan McPherson had an inconsistent 2022 season, but should rebound with a solid top 5 kicking season in 2023 for fantasy.

 

Cleveland Browns: The Browns failed to make the playoffs again in 2022. QB Deshaun Watson sat the first 10-games and struggled with rust the rest of the season as the starter. That said, he returns and looks ready to recapture his form from when he was a Texan. In other words, he's a low-end QB1 in 12-team leagues this summer. In the running game, RB Nick Chubb remains the primary back, as RB Kareem Hunt and RB D'Ernest Johnson are both gone, leaving RB Jerome Ford as the primary backup and handcuff. Chubb is now a clear RB1 for fantasy no matter the scoring system. In the passing game, WR Amari Cooper returns as the WR1 for the team, and a solid WR2 for fantasy. The Browns acquired WR Elijah Moore to pair with Cooper and WR Donovan Peoples-Jones. Moore is likely to play out of the slot, giving him ample chances to produce. DPJ loses some fantasy value with Moore on the roster. WR Marquise Goodwin and WR David Bell return for depth. At tight end, TE David Njoku returns as the primary pass-catcher and lower-end TE1 for fantasy. TE Jordan Akins and TE Harrison Bryant will back up Njoku. At kicker, PK Cade York returns, but it's unlikely that he will see enough scoring chances for real fantasy consideration.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers failed to make the playoffs in 2022. QB Kenny Pickett was up and down in his rookie season once he took over the starting job, but the team believes in him, so he begins 2023 as the solid starter. In fantasy terms, he's a QB3 with some potential at best. In the running game, RB Najee Harris returns as the starter, although he struggled at times last season to produce in a sputtering offense. He is still a talent, though, and a solid low-end RB1 for fantasy. RB Jaylen Warren returns to back up Harris, and he's a pretty good back, so that also makes him a must-have handcuff. RB Anthony McFarland returns for depth. In the passing game, WR Diontae Johnson and WR George Pickens return as the starters, but with Pickett still yet to fully develop, neither are top 25 fantasy WRs. At this point, I'd target Pickens over Johnson in my draft this summer due to his big play abilities. WR Allen Robinson was acquired from the Rams to fill the WR3 role, but his better playing days are behind him. WR Gunner Olszewski and WR Myles Boykin will provide depth. At tight end, TE Pat Freiermuth is coming off a decent season, but is only a lower-end TE1 for fantasy due to Pickett's inexperience. TE Zach Gentry returns to back up Freiermuth. PK Chris Boswell returns as the kicker, but is only a middle-of-the-road fantasy producer due to the questions still surrounding the offense.

 

NFC NORTH

 

Chicago Bears: The Bears failed to make the playoffs again in 2022. QB Justin Fields struggled early last season, but by mid-season, found his groove (by mostly running) and became a big time fantasy producer for his owners. Entering 2023, he is a solid QB1 for fantasy, with upside potential. In the running game, RB David Montgomery is gone, leaving RB Khalil Herbert to likely start, but the team did add RB D'Onta Foreman and rookie RB Roschon Johnson to the mix. Many believe Johnson will steal the starting job, but this offense is a RBBC, and all three backs will play, so don't overvalue any one of them. In the passing game, veteran WR Darnell Mooney (ankle) returns, but the team acquired WR D.J. Moore as their new WR1. He has the most fantasy value, but will have to develop chemistry with Fields if he's to finally maximize his potential. Others who will see playing time include: WR Chase Claypool, WR Equanimeous St. Brown, and WR Velus Jones. At tight end, TE Cole Kmet returns and will be paired with newly signed TE Robert Tonyan. Kmet appears to be a lower-end TE1 for fantasy, but let's just call this one situation to watch this summer. The kicker is PK Cairo Santos, but due to inconsistent scoring chances, he's not one to target for fantasy in 2023.

 

Detroit Lions: The Lions missed the playoffs once again in 2022, but not by much. QB Jared Goff surprised with more than 4,400 passing yards and 29 TD passes. Entering 2023, he is a solid QB2 for fantasy with some upside, as a spot starter. In the running game, RB D'Andre Swift and RB Jamaal Williams are both gone, as the team went in a different direction, adding RB David Montgomery and drafting RB Jahmyr Gibbs in April. They will tag-team in a RBBC, so neither is a top 20 fantasy RB, but both are talented enough to be top 30 RB options for fantasy. RB Craig Reynolds and RB Jermar Jefferson return for depth. In the passing game, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is the clear WR1 for the team, but doesn't score too many times. That said, he is a clear top 10 fantasy WR in PPR leagues. WR D.J. Chark is gone, as second-year WR Jameson Williams will be forced to sit the first six games due to as gambling suspension. Williams should make a decent fantasy impact once he returns. In the meantime, WR Josh Reynolds and WR Kalif Raymond will man the WR2/WR3 positions, giving them a tad of fantasy value early in the season. At the tight end position, TE T.J. Hockenson is long gone, leaving rookie TE Sam LaPorta a good opportunity to win the starting job this summer. He has real talent, making him an interesting fantasy sleeper. At kicker, PK Michael Badgley looks to be the guy, but with his job not a certainty, is only a middle-of-the-road fantasy option at kicker.

 

Green Bay Packers: The Packers failed to make the playoffs in 2022. As a result, QB Aaron Rodgers was eventually traded to the New York Jets this off-season, leaving QB Jordan Love as the team's new starter. Love can best be described as a fantasy sleeper, but one you don't want to be forced to rely upon, so taking him as a backup in the latter part of your draft is the smart plan. In the running game, RB Aaron Jones and RB A.J. Dillon will continue to share the workload after Jones took less money to stay. In fantasy terms, Jones remains a viable low-end RB1/high-end RB2, while Dillon is more of a decent RB3 in 12-team leagues. In the passing game, WR Allen Lazard and WR Randall Cobb are both now in New York with Rodgers, leaving WR Christian Watson and WR Romeo Doubs as the starters. Some believe Watson is a solid WR2, but that assumes that Love is a solid starting QB, something that has yet to be seen, so I'm more cautious with my ranking. As for Doubs, word is circulating that he could lead the team in catches, but again, Love in unproven, so if you draft a Packers WR, I'd be conservative with my picks. WR Samori Toure and rookie WR Jayden Reed will battle to fill the WR3 role on the team. At tight end, TE Robert Tonyan and veteran TE Marcedes Lewis are gone, leaving rookie TE Luke Musgrave as the player likely to win the starting job. He has talent, but due to Love, his ranking is more of a latter round fantasy sleeper. Veteran PK Mason Crosby is gone, as the team drafted rookie PK Anders Carlson as their new kicker. You know I do not care for rookie kickers, so until they prove themselves, I just say AVOID.

 

Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings made the playoffs last year, but lost in the wildcard round. Veteran QB Kirk Cousins returns as the starter, his last season under contract. No matter. He remains a solid lower-end QB1, but one prone for a terrible game here and there. In the running game, RB Dalvin Cook was cut loose due to his salary, as the team re-signed RB Alexander Mattison, as their new starter. He is a solid RB2 for fantasy due to volume alone, even if he's not as talented as Cook. Rookie RB DeWayne McBride is the new likely handcuff/backup to Mattison, but he will have to beat out RB Ty Chandler. In the passing game, WR Justin Jefferson returns as the clear WR1 for not only the team, but also for all of fantasy. He will go first in many drafts this summer. WR Adam Thielen decided to not take a pay cut and ended up released and signed with the Panthers. WR K.J. Osborn is expected to slide into the WR2 role for the team, after finishing strong in 2022, but rookie WR Jordan Addison will push for that job fairly early in the season. WR Jalen Reagor, WR Brandon Powell, and WR Jalen Nailor offer depth for the corps. At tight end, TE Irv Smith is gone, as the team is happy to welcome back TE T.J. Hockenson, a player who they acquired during last season. Hock is definitely a top 3 TE for fantasy in 2023. PK Greg Joseph is the kicker, and should see enough scoring chances this season to be a borderline fantasy starter in 12-man leagues.

 

That does it for the North divisions. Look for my views regarding the teams in the South shortly. All comments, complimentary or otherwise, are always welcome via the contact page. Let's talk fantasy football!

 

End.

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