2023 First Fantasy Football Thoughts: AFC/NFC South

by Michael Nazarek - 7/18/2023

Most training camps will begin in a week, so it's time to take a closer look at the South Division teams to see how things are shaping up...

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans: The Texans were one of the worst teams in the league in 2022 once again. QB Davis Mills will cede the starting job to rookie QB C.J. Stroud. Stroud has potential down the line, but do not expect him to light it up in his rookie season. There will be a big learning curve, so fantasy owners should look elsewhere for short-term success. Second-year RB Dameon Pierce proved to be everything the team wanted and needed him to be in 2022. He enters 2023 as a full-time workhorse back, and he's worked hard on his pass protection. For fantasy, he is a solid RB2. Veteran RB Devin Singletary was signed to back up Pierce and be his handcuff. RB Dare Ogunbowale and RB Mike Boone will provide depth. In the passing game, WR Brandin Cooks is gone, as the team signed veteran WR Robert Woods to start alongside WR Nico Collins, while WR John Metchie returns from a red-shirt rookie season to play his first NFL games. I like the fantasy sleeper potential of Collins, but I would avoid the aging Woods in this system. As for Metchie, he is a late-round talent, a guy you can draft and stash for later possible use. WR Noah Brown and rookie WR Tank Dell will provide depth. At tight end, the team signed veteran TE Dalton Schultz, but he will have to learn a new system and develop quick chemistry with Stroud to be anything close to what he was as a Cowboy in 2022. Don't overrate him. TE Brevin Jordan returns for depth. PK Ka'imi Fairbairn returns as the kicker on anything but a high-powered offense, giving him very little fantasy value in 2023.

 

Indianapolis Colts: The Colts missed the playoffs in 2022, when their short-term plan at QB was benched and elite RB was injured. Veteran QB Matt Ryan is gone, as the team drafted QB Anthony Richardson to start immediately. Richardson can run, but I wouldn't expect him to be the next coming of Jalen Hurts. In the running game, RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) struggled early last season, then suffered an ankle injury that nagged him for most of the final 10 games of the season. He returns as an elite player, but one who is no longer the top RB for fantasy in the league. RB Zack Moss returns to back up Taylor and be a change-of-pace. RB Deon Jackson returns for depth. In the passing game, WR Michael Pittman Jr. returns as the clear #1 WR for the team, but with Richardson at QB, his production could be spotty for fantasy, making him only a solid WR2. WR Parris Campbell is gone, as WR Alec Pierce and WR Isaiah McKenzie will fill the WR2/WR3 jobs on the roster. WR Ashton Dulin and rookie WR Josh Downs will provide depth. At tight end, TE Jelani Woods is likely to start, but share time with TE Mo Alie-Cox, making neither a solid fantasy prospect. Veteran PK Matt Gay was signed to kick, and he is a good one, but inconsistent scoring chances with Richardson leading the team make him a lower-end PK1 at best in 2023.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars surprisingly made the playoffs in 2022, but failed to make the big game. QB Trevor Lawrence took his game to a new level, becoming a solid top 10 fantasy QB. He is a great pick for fantasy if you want to wait beyond the time to get an elite QB, but still get a quality player. In the running game, RB Travis Etienne saw most of the workload, and ended the season as a RB2, but did finish with seven games of single-digit PPR performances. The team doesn't want to use him more, so that is the reason why he's on my Fantasy Creeper list for 2023. Rookie RB Tank Bigsby could grab a goal line role on the team, making life even more miserable for Etienne owners. RB D'Ernest Johnson and RB JaMycal Hasty will provide depth. In the passing game, WR Christian Kirk was a solid WR1 for the team for the first half of 2022, but faded down the stretch. The team acquired WR Calvin Ridley, and he enters the summer as the favorite to take over the WR1 role. As for Kirk, he's more of a WR3 for fantasy this season. WR Marvin Jones is gone, leaving WR Zay Jones as the new WR3 for the team, but only a risky WR5 for fantasy in that role. WR Jamal Agnew returns for depth. At tight end, TE Evan Engram was franchised and just signed a new long-term deal. He is a top 8 fantasy TE in most formats. Rookie TE Brenton Strange was drafted to back up Engram. PK Brandon McManus was recently signed to kick, and he's a low-end PK1 for fantasy due to his accuracy and the quality offense he now plays in for 2023.

 

Tennessee Titans: The Titans failed to make the playoffs in 2022. QB Ryan Tannehill returns to lead this run-centric offense, providing little in the way of excitement for fantasy, even with the addition of veteran WR DeAndre Hopkins. In the running game, RB Derrick Henry is healthy and returns to dominate touches in this offense once again. He's still an elite fantasy tailback for 2023. Rookie RB Tajae Spears will back up Henry as his new handcuff. In the passing game, the Hopkins signing helps this offense significantly, since WR Robert Woods struggled all of 2022 and is now a Texan. Hopkins is a high-end WR3 for fantasy due to the run-heavy strategy. WR Treylon Burks slides into the WR2 role for the team, making him a solid WR4 at best. WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and WR Kyle Philips will provide depth. At tight end, TE Austin Hooper and TE Geoff Swaim are both gone, leaving TE Chigoziem Okonkwo the new likely starter. He had some fantasy sleeper buzz this off-season, but his appeal is now capped by the arrival of Hopkins. PK Caleb Shudek is currently listed as the kicker. Who? Yup... AVOID.

 

NFC SOUTH

 

Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons failed to make the playoffs in 2022. QB Marcus Mariota is gone, and the team turned to QB Desmond Ridder as their new full-time starter. As he enters his second season, Ridder is a QB3 prospect for fantasy. In other words, look elsewhere for meaningful fantasy value at QB. In the running game, RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson will be going back to wideout nearly full-time now that rookie RB Bijon Robinson was drafted to be the new workhorse back. Robinson is a generational talent and elite fantasy producer. Second-year RB Tyler Allgeier will back up Robinson. RB Caleb Huntley returns for depth. In the passing game, WR Calvin Ridley was traded, as second-year WR Drake London is the clear WR1 for the team, but only a WR3 for fantasy, mostly due to Ridder. WR Mack Hollins, WR Scott Miller, WR KhaDarel Hodge, and WR Penny Hart will battle to fill the WR2/WR3 slots on the team, with little real fantasy value. At tight end, TE Kyle Pitts has all the talent in the world, but if he can't connect with Ridder, he's not worth much for fantasy. In other words, his ADP is way too high for my taste this summer, but he does have the potential to eventually become a solid fantasy producer. I just won't be drafting him. TE Jonnu Smith was acquired to back up Pitts. PK Younghoe Koo returns as the kicker, and is a solid PK1 for fantasy, since the team gives him plenty of FGAs in their offense.

 

Carolina Panthers: The Panthers missed the playoffs again in 2022. QB Sam Darnold is gone, as the team drafted QB Bryce Young to start from week #1 onward. Young is a rookie, so you won't draft him as a starter, but he could develop into a solid fantasy backup by mid-season. In the running game, RB Christian McCaffrey and RB D'Onta Foreman are gone, leaving RB Chuba Hubbard to backup new starting RB Miles Sanders. Sanders is a high-end RB2 for fantasy. RB Raheem Blackshear returns for depth. In the passing game, WR D.J. Moore and WR Robbie Anderson are gone, as the team signed WR Adam Thielen and WR D.J. Chark to play alongside WR Terrace Marshall. Thielen is a WR4 for fantasy, while Chark and Marshall have limited fantasy value. Rookie WR Jonathan Mingo has potential, making him a late-round draft and stash candidate. WR Laviska Shenault Jr. and WR Shi Smith return for depth. At tight end, TE Hayden Hurst was signed to start and play in the pass-catching role. He is an interesting latter round fantasy sleeper. TE Ian Thomas returns to backup Hurst. PK Eddie Pineiro is the kicker, but won't see enough scoring chances for real fantasy value.

New Orleans Saints: The Saints failed to make the playoffs in 2022. QB Andy Dalton is gone and QB Jameis Winston re-signed late this off-season as the new backup. Why? The team signed veteran QB Derek Carr to start. Carr disappointed last year in Las Vegas and was benched and eventually released. He gets new life as a Saint, but expecting him to be anything more than a decent fantasy backup is simply asking for too much. In the running game, RB Alvin Kamara plead no contest and settled a civil lawsuit over his Las Vegas fight, likely meaning at least a six-game suspension will be handed down shortly. Even when Kamara returns from his likely suspension, he is not a lock to regain the starting job immediately. RB Mark Ingram is gone once again, as the team signed RB Jamaal Williams in free agency and drafted RB Kendre Miller. Williams is gold at the goal, as he scored a whopping 17 times in 2022 as a Lion. Due to the likely RBBC, none of these players rank in the top 30 RBs for fantasy, but Williams has the most value right now. In the passing game, WR Michael Thomas (toe/foot) returns on a cheap contract, since he hasn't produced anything of real value in years due to injuries. Draft him if you like, but his current ADP of the 8^th round is too high for my taste. Second-year WR Chris Olave is the real WR1 in this passing game, and a top 15 fantasy WR in 2023. Veteran WR Jarvis Landry is gone, leaving WR Rashid Shaheed as the third WR for the team, and interesting latter round fantasy sleeper. He could pop for fantasy if Thomas succumbs to another injury early in the season. WR Tre'Quan Smith and WR Bryan Edwards will provide depth. At tight end, TE Taysom Hill will likely see most of his playing time at the position, making him a so-so fantasy backup, one with a high ceiling and low floor. TE Juwan Johnson emerged as a true force in 2022, especially in the red zone. He is a high-end TE2 with top 12 TE potential if he develops solid chemistry with Carr. TE Foster Moreau was signed for depth. PK Wil Lutz will likely see inconsistent scoring chances, making him a middling fantasy option at best in 2023.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers made the playoffs in 2022 with a losing record, but failed to make the big game. QB Tom Brady retired... again, and QB Blaine Gabbert is gone, leaving QB Kyle Trask and newly signed QB Baker Mayfield to battle for the starting job this summer. Mayfield appears likely to win that job, but his in-season performance is a very big question mark. In other words, AVOID him for fantasy. In the running game, RB Leonard Fournette is gone, leaving RB Rachaad White as the clear starter, while newly signed RB Chase Edmonds will back him up. White is a very clear and obvious fantasy sleeper this summer. RB Ke'Shawn Vaughn and RB Patrick Laird will provide depth. In the passing game, WR Mike Evans and WR Chris Godwin will play the D.J. Metcalf/Tyler Lockett roles in 2023 and hope Mayfield plays like Geno Smith, but something tells me he won't be that successful. As a result, both Evans and Godwin are both ranked beyond the top 20 fantasy WRs. WR Russell Gage returns to play in the slot, but has even less fantasy value due to the QB situation. WR David Moore and rookie WR Trey Palmer will provide depth. At tight end, TE Cameron Brate and TE Kyle Rudolph are gone, leaving TE Cade Otton as the clear starter, but with Mayfield/Trask starting, his fantasy value is minimal right now. PK Chase McLaughlin and PK Rodrigo Blankenship will battle for the kicking job this summer, so this is one situation to watch and avoid for fantasy.

That does it for the South divisions. Look for my views regarding the teams out West soon. All comments, complimentary or otherwise, are always welcome via the contact page. Let's talk fantasy football!

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