2023 First Fantasy Football Thoughts: AFC/NFC West

by Michael Nazarek - 7/21/2023

As we march towards the release of Version II of our Pre-Season Draft Guide next week, I look to the teams out west to finish my sweep…

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos: The Broncos were a big mess last year, which led to a house-cleaning and the eventual hiring of HC Sean Payton. QB Russell Wilson had his worst season by far in 2022, but the hope here is that Payton works with him to correct his issues. Unfortunately, Wilson is just getting older, so even though he could rebound, you shouldn't expect top 12 fantasy QB numbers from him in 2023, so drafting him as anything more than a latter round fantasy backup is just plain nuts. QB Jarrett Stidham is the backup this season. In the running game, RB Javonte Williams (torn ACL) says he should be ready to play come week #1, but the team will take it slowly, so don't overvalue him in your draft. RB Melvin Gordon and RB Mike Boone are both gone, as the team signed RB Samaje Perine to fill in the gap if Williams sits early in the season. Obviously, if you draft Williams, you should also draft Perine. In the passing game, WR Jerry Jeudy and WR Courtland Sutton both disappointed in 2022, but they return as the starters this summer. Fantasy value? How about decent WR3 options at best? Meanwhile, WR Tim Patrick (torn ACL) returns to fill the WR3 job on the team, but his production is likely to be spotty at best. WR K.J. Hamler also returns, but the guy to watch here is rookie WR Marvin Mims Jr, who could push for playing time sooner than later. At tight end, TE Albert Okwuegbunam has been benched for TE Greg Dulcich, who is a high-end TE2 with the potential to become a decent TE1 for fantasy. TE Adam Trautman was signed for depth. PK Brandon McManus was released and signed with the Jaguars, as the team signed PK Elliott Fry to kick. He is not a fantasy option at this time.

 

Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs climbed the mountain again in 2022 and won it all in the big game! QB Patrick Mahomes lost WR Tyreek Hill, but still finished among elite fantasy QB producers, and it will stay that way in 2023. QB Blaine Gabbert was signed as the new backup. In the running game, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire lost the starting job to RB Isiah Pacheco (shoulder/hand), who is a bit beat up heading into training camp. When healthy, Pacheco is a solid RB3 for fantasy, but he won't catch many passes. Why not? Veteran RB Jerick McKinnon was re-signed to play in that pass-catching back role. He carried fantasy owners with multiple scores late last season. That keeps him fantasy relevant, as a low-end RB3 in PPR leagues. As for CEH, he could be traded before the season begins if Pacheco regains his health and impresses. In the passing game, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster and WR Mecole Hardman are gone, as WR Kadarius Toney and WR Skyy Moore are expected to start with WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling set for the deep threat role. Toney and Moore both have sleeper status for fantasy, but due to Mahomes, they are both going in the 7-9 round area of most drafts this summer. WR Richie James and rookie WR Rashee Rice were added for depth. At tight end, TE Travis Kelce returns as THE elite fantasy tight end, no change here. TE Noah Gray and TE Blake Bell are his backups in 2023. PK Harrison Butker returns as the kicker, and should see enough scoring chances to be a top 5 fantasy kicker.

 

Las Vegas Raiders: The Raiders failed to make the playoffs in 2022. As a result, QB Derek Carr was benched and eventually released and signed with the Saints. Backup QB Jarrett Stidham is also gone, as the team signed QB Jimmy Garoppolo to be the new starter. With regard to fantasy, Garoppolo is not someone to target in your draft, due to his many injuries and lack of consistent production when he plays. In the running game, franchised RB Josh Jacobs remains unsigned and threatens to stay out of camp this summer. No matter, as when the games begin, Jacobs will be back. As for fantasy, he remains a top 10 fantasy back. RB Zamir White returns to back up Jacobs and likely be his handcuff. RB Ameer Abdullah and RB Brandon Bolden return for depth. In the passing game, WR Davante Adams is still an elite talent and fantasy producer, and that won't change with Garoppolo under center. WR Mack Hollins is gone, as WR Hunter Renfrow looks to recapture his form, coming off an injury-plagued season. The team also signed WR Jakobi Meyers to play opposite Adams. In fantasy terms, Meyers is a sleeper at best. WR Keelan Cole returns for depth. At tight end, TE Darren Waller and TE Foster Moreau are gone, as the team drafted TE Michael Meyer to eventually become the new starter, but veteran TE Austin Hooper was signed to help boost the position moving forward. In fantasy terms, both Meyer and Hooper have a bit of sleeper status at best. PK Daniel Carlson returns as the kicker. He should see enough scoring chances to remain an elite fantasy kicker in 2023.

 

Los Angeles Chargers: The Chargers made the playoffs in 2022, but failed to make the big game. QB Justin Herbert returns as the starter, and disappointed last year in fantasy terms. That said, there were valid reasons, as both injury to Herbert and his receiving corps really strapped him and turned him into more of a "dink and dunk" QB. That will not be the case in 2023, as he should rebound back into a top 5 fantasy QB with health restored to the passing game. QB Easton Stick is the backup to Herbert. In the running game, RB Austin Ekeler returns as do-everything elite fantasy producer. You will draft him in the first round this summer, and he's well worth drafting. With OC Kellen Moore taking over, Ekeler may be spelled a bit more than normal, but he's still an elite producer. Second-year RB Isaiah Spiller and RB Joshua Kelley will back up Ekeler. In the passing game, WR Keenan Allen and WR Mike Williams return as one of the top tandems at wideout in the NFL. Both are top 25 fantasy WRs in 2022, but should one go down via injury again, rookie WR Quentin Johnston will step in to help boost the production, making Johnston a solid player to draft and stash for use down the road. Meanwhile, WR Josh Palmer also returns and makes a great end of the draft player to target, since his targets would also increase if an injury strikes. WR Jalen Guyton and WR Keelan Doss will provide depth. At tight end, TE Gerald Everett returns as the starter. He saw increased usage in 2022 due to the injuries the team suffered at wideout, but do not overvalue him this summer, as he's only just a decent fantasy backup at TE if the corps remain mostly healthy. TE Donald Parham and TE Tre McKitty return as backups. PK Cameron Dicker and PK Dustin Hopkins will compete for the kicking job this summer. The winner is a middling fantasy prospect, one you can grab at the end of your draft.

 

NFC WEST

Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals failed to make the playoffs in 2022. QB Kyler Murray (torn ACL) is uncertain to begin the season on the field of play after tearing his ACL last December. As a result, he is a latter round grab and stash candidate for fantasy. QB Colt McCoy is the backup to Murray, but is also returning from injury, so he is not a lock to play come week #1 either. QB Jeff Driskel would likely start if both Murray and McCoy can't play, but he is one to avoid for fantasy. In the running game, RB James Conner slumped to eight scores from 17 in 2021, and without Murray, all bets are off. Yes, he is likely to hold a workhorse role, but his scoring chances are likely to be very hit/miss, making him only a lower-end RB2 for fantasy. Second-year RB Keaontay Ingram is the backup and likely handcuff to Conner. In the passing game, WR DeAndre Hopkins was released, leaving WR Marquise Brown to be the clear WR1 for the team, but only a WR3 for fantasy, perhaps even lower if Murray doesn't play until October/November. WR A.J. Green retired, leaving WR Rondale Moore and WR Greg Dortch to fill the WR2/WR3 roles for the team, with minimal fantasy impact if Murray isn't playing. WR Andre Bacceillia and WR Zach Pascal will provide depth. At tight end, TE Zach Ertz (torn ACL) could miss much of the season, as second-year TE Trey McBride is expected to start while Ertz is out. McBride has very minimal fantasy value due to the QB situation. Veteran PK Matt Prater returns as the kicker, but is only a middling fantasy option due to the inconsistent scoring chances he will see.

 

Los Angeles Rams: The Rams imploded last year, one season after winning it all in the Super Bowl. QB Matthew Stafford suffered through an injury plagued season, and the team even considered trading him. That said, he's locked in for 2023 and should rebound a bit for fantasy, but expecting anything more than decent fantasy backup numbers with a few good games is likely asking for too much. Rookie QB Stetson Bennett is the new backup. In the running game, RB Cam Akers wanted to be traded mid-season, but was not. He ended the season on a high note, running well the last several games. As a result, he's a nice fantasy sleeper pick for owners to consider in the 5^th/6^th round area of their draft. RB Darrell Henderson is long gone, as RB Kyren Williams returns to backup Akers. In the passing game, WR Cooper Kupp (ankle) should be good to go come September, as he remains an elite fantasy producer. WR Allen Robinson was traded, leaving WR Van Jefferson as the new WR2 for the team and interesting latter round fantasy sleeper. WR Ben Skowronek, WR Tutu Atwell, and WR Lance McCutcheon will fight for the WR3 job and provide depth. At tight end, TE Tyler Higbee returns, and he's another fantasy sleeper pick to consider for 2023 now that Stafford is healthy. TE Brycen Hopkins is the backup. Rookies PK Christopher Dunn and PK Tanner Brown will battle for the kicking job, but neither are likely to have much fantasy value.

 

San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers made the playoffs in 2022, but failed to make the big game. QB Jimmy Garoppolo is gone, as Mr. Irrelevant QB Brock Purdy (elbow) took over late in the season, but an injury in the playoffs cost his team any chance to win. Purdy should be fine for week #1, and he's the favorite to start over QB Trey Lance, a player that I don't care for one bit. Purdy makes for a good QB3 on any roster this summer. QB Sam Darnold was signed for insurance. In the running game, RB Christian McCaffrey returns as the do-all starter and elite fantasy producer. He's that good, even likely sharing some time with a healthy RB Elijah Mitchell. As for Mitchell, he's the handcuff, but also has a bit of standalone value for fantasy, when he's healthy. RB Jordan Mason and RB Tyrion Davis-Price return for depth. In the passing game, WR Deebo Samuel is coming off a disappointing inconsistent season, but still has value as a WR2 for fantasy, even if he's overrated by many. WR Brandon Aiyuk returns to start opposite Samuel, and a solid WR3 for fantasy. WR Jauan Jennings should fill the #3 WR role, while WR Chris Conley and WR Ray-Ray McCloud provide depth. At tight end, TE George Kittle is an elite talent, but sometimes disappeared from the passing game in 2022. With Purdy at QB, Kittle he remains a top 5 fantasy TE. Rookie TE Cameron Latu was drafted to back up Kittle, with TE Ross Dwelley still in the mix. Veteran PK Robbie Gould is gone, leaving rookie PK Jake Moody as the kicker. I avoid rookie kickers until they prove themselves.

 

Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks shockingly made the playoffs in 2022. QB Geno Smith was the biggest surprise for the team, as he produced a solid top 10 fantasy QB season. He returns with an extension and similar value for fantasy owners this summer. QB Drew Lock returns as the backup. In the running game, RB Rashaad Penny is gone, as second-year RB Kenneth Walker returns as the starter, coming off a very nice rookie season. That said, the team drafted rookie RB Zach Charbonnet in April, lowering the ceiling for Walker due to Charbonnet's talents. Expect more of a 1-2 punch at RB instead of a workhorse/backup situation. RB DeeJay Dallas returns for depth. In the passing game, WR D.K. Metcalf and WR Tyler Lockett return for 2023, coming off big seasons with Smith developing into a solid starter. They are both top 25 fantasy WRs this summer for fantasy. Rookie WR Jackson Smith-Njigba will fill the slot role, and could eventually push Lockett for his job, but not early this season. WR D’Wayne Eskridge and WR Cody Thompson will provide depth. At tight end, TE Noah Fant will start, but also share time with TE Will Dissly and TE Colby Parkinson, making none of them top 20 fantasy TEs. PK Jason Myers is the kicker, and is a solid top 10 PK for fantasy in 2023.

That's a wrap on my "First Thoughts" for 2023! Be sure to keep an eye on FFMastermind.com in the coming weeks as we'll continue to bring you the very latest NFL news and informative "Eye in the Sky" training camp reports from our NFL team correspondents, as well as continue to release new updates to our Pre-Season Draft Guide. All comments, complimentary or otherwise, are always welcome via the contact page. Let's talk fantasy football!

 

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