2024 First Fantasy Football Thoughts: AFC/NFC East

by Michael Nazarek - 7/16/2024

My First Thoughts series returns this month for 2024! The 4th of July has come and gone and training camps are starting to open. The first cut of our Pre-Season Draft Guide has been released, so the plan for this series is to whip through all 32 teams before the end of the month. As in years past, this series of articles will begin in the East and I'll work my way West. Let's get right to it, there's a lot to discuss...

 

AFC EAST

 

Buffalo Bills: The Bills failed to make it to the Super Bowl again, but the team is still a threat to win it all in 2024. Stud QB Josh Allen remains a top-notch fantasy producer in the league, so there is no issue here, although his WR corps has changed a lot. Still, he's talented enough to adjust to remain elite. In the running game, third-year RB James Cook is set to start, but rookie RB Ray Davis and RB Ty Johnson will steal some touches here and there. Of course, the primary threat to scoring chances for Cook always remains Allen. In the passing game, veterans WR Stefon Diggs and WR Gabriel Davis are both gone. That leaves rookie WR Keon Coleman and newly signed WR Curtis Samuel to lead the corps, along with WR Khalil Shakir. Coleman should become the WR1 over time, but expect Samuel to catch more passes, at least early in the season. As for Shakir, he is a nice sleeper for fantasy, and could surprise. Veterans WR Mack Hollins, WR Chase Claypool, and WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling round out the corps for depth. At tight end, second-year TE Dalton Kincaid is likely to see even more targets in the passing game, at least early in the season. He is a solid TE1 for fantasy, while TE Dawson Knox returns to siphon off a few targets, as needed. At kicker, PK Tyler Bass returns, and remains a solid PK1 for fantasy in this high-powered offense.

 

Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins made the playoffs in 2023, but failed to reach the big game. QB Tua Tagovailoa was solid again last year, although he faded a bit for fantasy later in the year. He wants a new deal, but the Dolphins are weighing their options closely. Still, he should show for camp. In the running game, RB Raheem Mostert and second-year RB De'Von Achane were ultra-productive in the Dolphins scheme, translating to elite fantasy production. Both players are top 25 fantasy RBs. Rookie RB Jaylen Wright should slide into the RB3 role, possibly pushing RB Jeff Wilson Jr. and/or RB Salmon Ahmed right off the roster. In the passing game, veteran WR Tyreek Hill and WR Jaylen Waddle remain an elite fantasy duo, making both top 25 WRs in PPR leagues. Newly signed Veteran WR Odell Beckham Jr. will compete with rookie WR Malik Washington for the WR3 role. My belief is that the young guy will take it over at some point. That said, most of the targets will still go to Hill and Waddle. WR River Cracraft and WR Braxton Berrios return for depth. At tight end, veteran WR Jonnu Smith was signed, and is a late-round fantasy sleeper, although the Dolphins don't target their TE much in the passing game. TE Durham Smythe returns for depth. PK Jason Sanders returns as the kicker, and he's a solid PK1 for fantasy.

 

New England Patriots: The Patriots slumped to new recent lows in 2023, leading to the removal of HC Bill Belichick. QB Mac Jones is gone, as the team signed veteran QB Jacoby Brissett and drafted rookie QB Drake Maye in April with new HC Jerod Mayo in charge. Brissett is expected to begin the season as the starter and yield to Maye at some point. Smart fantasy owners in re-drafter leagues should avoid this situation. In the running game, RB Rhamondre Stevenson was extended and will start and carry most of the workload, making him a top 20 fantasy RB. RB Antonio Gibson was signed to back him up and provide here and there. In the passing game, WR Kendrick Bourne (torn ACL), returns, but might not be ready to play come week #1. Second-year WR Demario Douglas and rookie WR Ja'Lynn Polk seem to be the likely starters, while WR K.J. Osborn and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster provide depth. There is the chance that Polk doesn't start over Osborn, though. From the entire group, I like Douglas the best to produce fairly immediately, making him my deep sleeper at wideout in 2024. At tight end, TE Hunter Henry returns, while TE Mike Gesicki left via free agency. Veteran TE Austin Hooper was signed for depth. Henry is a solid fantasy backup in 2024. Second-year PK Chad Ryland will battle veteran PK Joey Slye for the kicking job, but the winner is unlikely to see enough scoring chances for real fantasy consideration.

 

New York Jets: The Jets failed to field a winner again in 2023, mostly due to the Achilles injury to QB Aaron Rodgers in Week #1. Well, Rodgers is healthy, so there is optimism once again that he can lead the Jets to the playoffs. As for fantasy, Rodgers is a sleeper backup QB, one with potential to pop here and there, as long as his healthy holds up. In the running game, RB Breece Hall is on the verge of becoming the next elite fantasy STUD RB, alongside CMC. Rookie RB Braelon Allen will fill in as needed to keep Hall fresh, but this is clearly Hall's backfield. In the passing game, WR Garrett Wilson returns as the clear WR1 for this passing game. He should be a top 10 fantasy WR if Rodgers plays an entire season. The Jets signed WR Mike Williams (torn ACL), who will start, but his knee injury is a concern. At least you can wait to draft him this summer due to the injury. WR Xavier Gipson will see action in the slot, while others returning include WR Allen Lazard and WR Malik Taylor. That said, rookie WR Malachi Corley could make an impact if he gets off on the right foot in this passing game. At tight end, veteran TE Tyler Conklin returns, while TE C.J. Uzomah is gone. That makes Conklin a bit of a fantasy sleeper in larger leagues. Veteran PK Greg Zuerlein returns, and should get a boost in production with Rodgers at the helm, giving in some fantasy value in large leagues this season.

 

NFC EAST

 

Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys made the playoffs last year, but once again didn't come close to winning their way into the big game. That said, QB Dak Prescott remains far from the issue. He is a solid fantasy starter in any scoring system. In the running game, RB Ezekiel Elliott has returned to the team after RB Tony Pollard left via free agency to sign with the Titans. RB Rico Dowdle re-signed, and will likely push Elliott far away from a workhorse role. At wideout, WR CeeDee Lamb returns as the team's clear WR1, while WR Michael Gallup is gone, and WR Brandin Cooks returns as the WR2. Lamb is an elite fantasy producer, while Cooks is ranked beyond WR50. WR Jalen Tolbert will see action alongside rookie WR Ryan Flournoy in the WR3 role, but neither are expected to make much of a fantasy impact. At tight end, TE Jake Ferguson took over last year to become a solid top 10 TE for fantasy. That won't change in 2024. Second-year TE Luke Schoonmaker returns for depth. Second-year PK Brandon Aubrey was elite last year, so don't expect that to change in 2024. This offense will still score a lot of points!

 

New York Giants: My favorite team crashed and burned in spectacular fashion in 2023. That said, HC Brian Daboll remains in charge and QB Daniel Jones (torn ACL) gets at least one more chance to show he can get the job done. Don't count on it, especially for fantasy. In the running game, RB Saquon Barkley left via free agency to sign with the rival Eagles. Enter newly signed RB Devin Singletary, a player far from elite. He will be lucky to generate RB3 numbers for fantasy most weeks. RB Eric Gray and rookie RB Tyrone Tracy will provide depth. In the passing game, WR Darius Slayton, WR Wan'Dale Robinson, and WR Isaiah Hodgins return as inconsistent fantasy producers. Fortunately, the team drafted WR Malik Nabers to fill the WR1 role in the corps. He should produce solid WR3 numbers if Jones plays well. Otherwise, this offense will be a real mess. At tight end, veteran TE Darren Waller retired, leaving TE Daniel Bellinger as the new TE1 with rookie TE Theo Johnson as the possible new starter down the road. Bottom Line: This is one position to avoid on the Giants for fantasy. PK Graham Gano returns as a quality kicker, but is unlikely to score enough for real fantasy consideration.

 

Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles lost in the playoffs to end their 2023 season. QB Jalen Hurts remains an elite fantasy producer heading into 2024. In the running game, RB D'Andre Swift left via free agency, as the team signed former Giants RB Saquon Barkley to be the new workhorse back. Barkley sees an immediate upgrade up front to the OL, but will lose out on some goal line touches to Hurts and the "Tush-Push." Still, Barkley will be a top 10 fantasy RB this season. RB Kenneth Gainwell returns as the primary backup to Barkley. Rookie RB Will Shipley was added for depth. In the passing game, veterans WR A.J. Brown and WR DeVonta Smith remain one of the most productive fantasy WR duos in the league. They are both top 25 WRs for fantasy this summer. Veteran WR John Ross unretired and was signed for depth, and the team also added rookies WR Ainias Smith and WR Johnny Wilson to round out the corps. At tight end, TE Dallas Goedert returns again as the starter, and a lower-end TE1 for fantasy. PK Jake Elliott also returns, as a quality kicker, one who finally saw enough scoring chances in 2023 to make a real impact for fantasy. He's a solid PK1 in 2024.

 

Washington Commanders: Washington struggled again in 2023 and failed to make the playoffs. QB Sam Howell is OUT and rookie QB Jayden Daniels is in! Daniels is talented, so he should make a solid impact in 2024 as the team's new starter, but he will likely be inconsistent for his fantasy owners. In the running game, RB Brian Robinson returns as the starter, while RB Antonio Gibson left via free agency, and RB Austin Ekeler was signed to be the change-of-pace pass-catching back. Yes, that really restricts the upside of Ekeler. RB Chris Rodriguez rounds out the RB corps as the RB3. In the passing game, WR Terry McLaurin returns as the WR1, and with Daniels at the helm, he could be anywhere from an inconsistent WR3 early in the season to a solid WR2 later depending how quickly Daniels develops. WR Jahan Dotson disappointed as the WR2 last season, so he enters 2024 with a lot to prove. WR Curtis Samuel left via free agency, leaving rookie WR Luke McCaffrey to be the new slot/WR3. McCaffrey has some sleeper status, since he has the McCaffrey pedigree. WR Dyami Brown returns for depth. At tight end, TE Logan Thomas is gone, as the team added veteran TE Zach Ertz and drafted TE Ben Sinnott in April. Sinnott has fantasy sleeper written all over him. Veteran PK Brandon McManus was released, after legal issues cropped up in the offseason. Unknown PK Ramiz Ahmed will have to earn the kicking job in camp and in the preseason, so this is one position to avoid for fantasy from Washington.

That's a wrap for the two Eastern divisions. Be sure to join me over the coming days as I offer my First Thoughts on the other six divisions. All comments, complimentary or otherwise, are always welcome via our contact page. Let's talk fantasy football!

 

End.

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