2023 Week #2 Market Preview - The Running Backs

by Michael Nazarek (RELEASED - 9/12/2023)

Editor's Note: Below you will find a portion of our 2023 Fantasy Football Weekly Newsletter Market feature for Week #2. If you'd like to read about all positions including our Free Agent Player Rankings, please click HERE to order our 2023 Weekly In-Season Fantasy Newsletters.

Let's see if you've heard this before... The first week of the 2023 NFL season was inconsistent. It's always that way. What have we learned? It's only ONE WEEK. Patience is the key to winning. Of course, if someone in your league wants to dump under-performing QB Joe Burrow or RB Josh Jacobs in your lap at a bargain price, snatch him up now! Those owners are panicking for nothing and are well on their way to a losing season. Obviously, they are not reading this newsletter, so don't hesitate to take advantage! Now, let's get into this week's fantasy "Market"...

 

THE QUARTERBACKS

 

To view this section, click HERE to order our 2023 Weekly In-Season Fantasy Newsletters.

 

THE RUNNING BACKS

 

-- Grab Kyren Williams! --

 

Believe it or not, RB Kyren Williams led the Los Angeles Rams' backfield on Sunday. That said, RB Cam Akers started the game, but Williams entered the game on the second play and was the Rams' leader in every situation. Before the game, Williams was expected to be the passing-down back, with Akers as the early-down back, but Williams took most of the early-down work against the Seahawks. Akers finished the game with 29 yards and a score on 22 carries. The Rams had a 17-13 lead heading into the fourth quarter, and at that time, Williams had more carries (11-10) and nearly three times as many yards (36 to 13). It wasn't until late in the fourth quarter when the Rams were protecting their lead that Akers overtook Williams as the leader in carries. Akers saw eight carries in the last four minutes of the game. This development makes Williams the clear cut waiver wire target at running back for this week!

 

-- Got J.K. Dobbins? Consider Justice Hill & Gus Edwards --

 

Baltimore Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins (Achilles) is lost for the season with a torn Achilles. After the injury, RB Gus Edwards was the second running back to play an offensive snap on Sunday against the Texans, but RB Justice Hill also received early-down snaps in the first quarter. The Ravens used both Hill and Edwards significantly after the injury. You can likely expect Edwards to lead the team in carries moving forward, but only with a slight edge over Hill, who will be used more in passing situations. While HC John Harbaugh talked up the fact that veteran RB Melvin Gordon is on the practice squad, he is likely only to be promoted to serve as the team's #3 RB moving forward, meaning only a few snaps here and there. RB Keaton Mitchell was an undrafted rookie with a lot of hype, but he's on injured reserve right now, and could be back in Week #5. Bottom Line: In PPR leagues, Hill is the clear guy to pick up first, then Edwards. In a basic scoring league, I give a slight edge to Edwards, but it's close. Of course, if the running game struggles with these players, they could always sign a guy like free-agent veteran RB Kareem Hunt, but the indication is that it's unlikely to happen at this time.

 

-- Bijan Robinson's Debut Overshadowed --

 

The Atlanta Falcons have a plan and it is almost exclusively about the running game. Rookie RB Bijan Robinson made his debut on Sunday, but the team used a strict 2-man RBBC with Robinson and RB Tyler Allgeier. Allgeier saw an edge in running situations, while Robinson played more in passing situations. That meant Robinson saw a massive 33.3% target rate, which severely cut into the fantasy production of all of the other Falcons receivers. Both running backs maintained a 5.0 yards per carry or better average, with Robinson being slightly more explosive. As the game progressed into the 4^th quarter, the usage changed. Robinson had a clear edge in offensive snaps over the first three quarters, but it was Allgeier who was used more as a closer, playing in 11-of-15 snaps in the fourth quarter. Robinson's scored in the second quarter, where Allgeier scored his two TDs in the fourth quarter. Overall, the Falcons run and pass to their backs so much that both Robinson and Allgeier could be solid fantasy starts most weeks. In other words, if you drafted both, then you likely got a nice bonus possible starter in any given week!

 

-- Derrick Henry's Role --

 

In a big surprise on Sunday, Tennessee Titans rookie RB Tyjae Spears leads the team's backfield in snaps. How did that happen? Well, as expected, Spears played the passing-down snaps, but also took significant snaps on early downs. That said, the move didn't stop RB Derrick Henry from receiving 15 carries for 63 yards and catching additional two passes for 56 receiving yards. Now, Spears did well on his three carries, totaling 27 yards. He was also targeted four times, but that led to only one catch for one yard. Is this type of split something to be concerned about? Not really. Most of the early down work that Spears saw was long down and distance. Bottom Line: The Titans have adjusted Henry's snaps in order to keep him fresh, but it's not like they are moving away from King Henry. Henry remains a must start for fantasy, and his catch and long run in the game show that a rested Henry is a very good thing for fantasy!

 

-- Nick Chubb Without Kareem Hunt --

 

A quick note: There was a lot of preseason talk about the Cleveland Browns offense changing, but starting RB Nick Chubb's usage looked very familiar. Chubb was the primary running back on early downs, running for over 100 yards, but he often left the field in passing situations. RB Jerome Ford was the primary third-down back, and there were also times when Cleveland opted not to have a running back on the field. Ford also dominated snaps in the fourth quarter when Cleveland had a clear lead. The Browns would often do the exact same thing with RB Kareem Hunt as the closer in 2022. Now for the good news for Chubb owners... Chubb caught all four targets in this game. It was the eighth game in his career with four or more receptions and just his second over the last three seasons. While we might not see a big change in how Chubb is used in 2023, he should see a few more targets than what he's received in the past, which is a good thing for Chubb owners.

 

-- Najee Harris = Jaylen Warren? --

 

I was worried about Pittsburgh Steelers RB Najee Harris this summer and I had good reason to be. On Sunday against the 49ers, Harris splits early-down snaps with RB Jaylen Warren. The two tailbacks played the same number of snaps in normal early-down situations. Both players touched the ball eight times in this game, with Harris gaining more yards thanks to a 24-yard gain during the two-minute drill. Now, Harris was still the primary short-yardage back and Warren was the primary third-down back. Harris also played the majority of snaps during the two-minute drill. Typically, it's the third-down back who plays those snaps, but Harris was also the two-minute-drill back throughout last season. Harris is still expected to be the starter moving forward, but all of the talk of a shared backfield proved to true on Sunday. What's a smart Harris owner to do? Well, he is still startable, but it's probably best to SEEL HIGH on Harris AFTER he scores a TD. At this rate, he may slide into the RB3 range than a solid RB2. Stay tuned!

 

-- Tank Bigsby Good & Bad --

 

Jacksonville Jaguars rookie RB Tank Bigsby was a mixed bag in his NFL debut. The good: Bigsby scored a touchdown on Sunday, but also dropped a pass leading to an interception and lost a fumble (the bad). RB Travis Etienne dominated offensive snaps over the first three drives, playing 15-of-16 snaps, but the two shared snaps on the 4^th and 5^th drives. Now, Etienne dominated snaps after the turnovers, but Bigsby did take the goalline snaps as anticipated, leading to his first NFL score. In other words, the two tailbacks were relatively close together for fantasy until Etienne broke a 26-yard touchdown run less than a minute later. Bottom Line: Etienne is a safe fantasy start at the moment, but Bigsby should be monitored to see how his opportunities either grow or are cut back. Right now, Bigsby only deserves some consideration in basic scoring leagues.

 

-- Rachaad White Struggles to Produce While Dominating Snaps --

 

There was good and bad for Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Rachaad White's first game as the team's feature back. White dominated offensive snaps throughout the game, but that didn't lead to a great game for fantasy. White rushed 17 times for 39 yards and caught two passes for 10 yards. Those are far from impressive numbers, but White was the clear top back in every situation, with backup RB Sean Tucker and veteran RB Chase Edmonds each seeing a tad of playing time. What went wrong? Well, the blocking was less than desired, as the backs saw contact early and often on most plays. That said, everything points to White continuing to handle a dominant workload. However, he must start to produce better results, or Tucker/Edmonds will start to cut more into his playing time!

 

-- Antonio Gibson's Fading Role --

 

A quick note: Washington Commanders RB Brian Robinson has clearly pulled ahead of RB Antonio Gibson as the team's starting running back. Robinson gained 59 yards on 19 carries and caught a seven-yard touchdown pass. Meanwhile, Gibson was held to three carries for nine yards. He also caught a 10-yard pass and lost a fumble. The fumble didn't seem to impact Gibson's playing time, as he was on the field for five plays on the following two drives, compared to three for Robinson. Robinson received a majority of snaps on early downs (expected), but it was surprising to see Robinson play a few snaps on third down. He saw three snaps on third-and-6 or longer, something he did only once all of last season. What does all this mean? Robinson is clearly a safer start for fantasy moving forward, while Gibson is not much more than a bench candidate right now.

 

-- The Broncos 2-Man RBBC --

 

Denver Broncos HC Sean Payton lied to all of us. He said undrafted RB Jaleel McLaughlin would see significant carries on Sunday. McLaughlin saw ZERO carries! Then again, that certainly is significant! Bottom Line: The Broncos used a 2-man RBBC on Sunday, as RB Javonte Williams played on early downs, while RB Samaje Perine played on passing downs. Williams ended the game with 52 rushing yards on 13 carries. He added four catches for 5 yards. Meanwhile, Perine gained 41 yards on eight carries and led the team in receiving yards, with 37 yards from four catches. Moving forward, Williams should generally play more than Perine, but Denver happened to have a lot of third-down plays and plays in the two-minute drill on Sunday. The biggest concern for Williams owners is that Perine played two snaps in goal-line situations, while Williams only played one. Then again, perhaps that was done since this was Williams' first game back after his ACL injury. Bottom Line: Williams is a RB3 with RB2 upside due to his talent. That said, there is a chance that he remains in a RRBC for the entire season, which means that his upside would be capped in that situation.

 

-- Breece Hall Dominates... When He Played --

 

New York Jets RB Breece Hall showed everyone he is pretty much fully recovered from a torn ACL suffered in 2022 on Monday night. Hall had multiple 20+ yard plays against the Bills despite being on a strict snap count. Hall broke one run for 83 yards, while also making two other plays for more than 20 yards. Meanwhile, after the big runs, RB Dalvin Cook played most of the other snaps with RB Michael Carter playing on third downs. Bottom Line: This is Hall's team when he's fully healthy and ready to take on a larger role. One concern was Carter's usage on third downs, but the Jets will now focus on their running game due to QB Aaron Roders' torn Achilles injury, so it's not like Hall will be cheated out of carries once he can handle a full workload.

 

-- RB Potpourri --

 

Let's take a look at some of the other more notable RB performances from last week... Kansas City Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire saw 7 touches last Thursday night against the Lions. Carolina Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard saw 11 touches on Sunday against the Falcons. Houston Texans RB Devin Singletary saw 7 rushes on Sunday against the Ravens. Chicago Bears rookie RB Roschon Johnson scored on 11 touches on Sunday against the Packers. Los Angeles Chargers RB Joshua Kelley scored on 16 rushes on Sunday against the Dolphins.

 

THE WIDE RECEIVERS

 

To view this section, click HERE to order our 2023 Weekly In-Season Fantasy Newsletters.

 

THE TIGHT ENDS

 

To view this section, click HERE to order our 2023 Weekly In-Season Fantasy Newsletters.

 

The following is the initial in-season free agent player rankings list for the 2023 NFL season. If you're looking for a free agent off your leagues' waiver wire to fill a need (maybe depth), these are the players to consider...

 

FREE AGENT PLAYER RANKINGS

 

Rank	Quarterbacks	Rank	Tight Ends
1	Order Now to View List	1	Order Now to View List
2		2
3		3
4		4
5		5
6		6
7		7
8		8
9		9
10		10
11		11
12		12
13		13
14		14
15
			* - Starting Due to Injury
	* - Starting Due to Injury
Rank	Running Backs	Rank	Wide Recievers
1	Tyler Allgeier, ATL	1	Order Now to View List
2	Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (INJ)	2
3	Joshua Kelley, LAC *	3
4	Kyren Williams, LAR	4
5	Jaylen Warren, PIT	5
6	Justice Hill, BAL *	6
7	Gus Edwards, BAL *	7
8	Zack Moss, IND (INJ)	8
9	Samaje Perine, DEN	9
10	Roschon Johnson, CHI	10
11	Tank Bigsby, JAX	11
12	Chuba Hubbard, CAR	12
13	Jerome Ford, CLE	13
14	Tajae Spears, TEN	14
15	Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC	15
16	Sean Tucker, TB	16
17	Devin Singletary, HOU	17
18	D'Onta Foreman, CHI	18
19	Ty Chandler, MIN	19
20	Antonio Gibson, WAS	20
21	Rico Dowdle, DAL	21
22	Chris Evans, CIN	22
23	Melvin Gordon, BAL *	23
		24
	* - Could Start Due to Injury	25
		26
			* - Could Start Due to Injury
Rank	Place Kickers	Rank	Team Defenses
1	Order Now to View List	1	Order Now to View List
2		2
3		3
4		4
5		5
6
7
8
9
10

 

End.

back to top of page