Hey there Colts’ fans! Here are my thoughts on the recent happenings at the Colts Corral, as well as some looks ahead to next week’s NFL draft:

The biggest (and perhaps only) news of the last month was the signing of DT DeForest Buckner to a contract extension, tying him to the Colts for two additional seasons, through 2026. His new deal adds $46 million to his existing deal, and fully guarantees $43.25 million of it through guarantees and bonuses. His also frees up an additional $14.4 million in 2024 cap space while keeping his 2024 compensation the same, and was done by a very un-Colts like way of doing it – with two voidable years in 2027 and 2028 to spread out the cap hit. Buckner talked a lot about loving the culture in the city for raising his young family, but his commitment to the team into his 30’s shows that he is confident of the trajectory for the short term as well to commit for at least three more seasons with a young quarterback.

With the Colts having now just under $30 million in cap space as a result of this extension, many thought they might be players in the later stages of the free agency or maybe setting themselves up to a trade for a high-dollar guy. Realistically, this is probably more likely to be targeting a re-signingof S Julian Blackmon to a longer-term deal; Blackmon did sign a one year deal for $3.7 million, but I think some good health and solid play will have them looking for a big extension later in 2024 in-season. They also are likely looking ahead to contract extensions for a handful of their own guys later this season like P Rigoberto Sanchez, OC Ryan Kelly and a handful of defensive contributors including LB EJ Speed. The Colts, especially under GM Chris Ballard, have a been a big believer in building through the draft and resigning their own free agents, and this low-activity 2024 offseason may again be testament to that.

But despite their usually boring and internalized offseason, there has been some buzz leading up to the draft. Even with the big contract given to WR Michael Pittman, it is no secret that the team has receiver as a big need and that this is a draft replete with talent at the position especially in the top of the first round. A lot of mock drafts have shown the Colts trading up to get one of the big three receivers in this draft, with LSU’s speedy playmaker Malik Nabers being a very interesting and complementary fit to this offense’s needs. Washington’s Rome Odunze is a guy I have liked all along as well, but he is too similar to Pittman to really expand the potential of the offense. But as you can imagine, the possibility of trading up to grab Marvin Harrison Jr after his dad had a Hall of Fame career here has people salivating. The Colts would have to move up into at least the top 5 spots to have a shot at Harrison, which could be too pricy as other teams seeking a quarterback might be making more competitive offers. But…the Colts do have three picks in the top 82 and a ton of cap space to maneuver a trade if that is what they really want. Sliding up a few spots into the 10-12 range might make more sense if the third of those three is on the board, but that might be a stretch as well with the depth available at the position. It also simply is not Ballard’s m.o., so it would be a shocker to see it happen. In either case, I would rather see them save the draft capital and sit back at #15, perhaps looking at LSU’s other dazzling option if they want a receiver in round one: Brian Thomas Jr, who reminds a lot of people of Tee Higgins coming out of college. However if the draft falls as I think it may, then they may be better off taking a speed receiver in round two like combine record-setter Xavier Worthy of Texas, who is not just a slender speed demon but an accomplished route runner in the vein of a guy like DeSean Jackson. South Carolina’s Xavier Legette has been compared to a raw version of D.K. Metcalf, so he would be a nice addition if they wait until round 3 or trade back in round two. He would not add as much immediate help, but he could offer tremendous day 2 upside.

The other most pressing need for this roster is an immediate starter in the secondary at corner, and again there are a few guys with pedigree and likely availability in the middle of round 1 that have been spoken of a lot in conjunction with pick #15. Alabama’s Terrion Arnold and Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell each have been pegged in mocks to the Colts, although Arnold is usually slated to go much higher. Arnold may look and act the part of an uber-confident shut-down corner a little more and has faced far better competition, but playing for Alabama he consistently faced opposing offenses in desperation mode, so his stats and fearless aggressiveness may be a bit inflated. I like the quiet consistency and intangibles that Mitchell offers far more. Mitchell led the nation in passes defensed in 2022 and was 2^nd last year (to Arnold), achieving 2^nd team All-American status despite playing at a mid-major – a difficult feat as a corner on a mediocre team. For whatever it is worth, Mitchell is one of the few guys that visited the Colts and he is a real playmaker, so I think the Colts would love to be able to call his name on Thursday night as their first rounder. There are a handful of corners with NFL starter grades and late-first round draft grades, so if those two guys and the 3-4 top receivers are all off the board, a trade back to target guys like Kool-Aid McKinstry, Cooper DeJean or the slender Nate Wiggins are feasible as well. I would not be surprised to see them still target a veteran corner in free agency or a trade even if spending their top pick on one here – the need is that great.

A lot of early offseason buzz has Georgia’s Brock Bowers falling into Indy’s lap, and HC Shane Steichen’s offense has a great interest in a "move" tight end like Bowers. He has been compared a lot to Travis Kelce and will help a lot of teams, but with the draft capital invested in tight ends over the years and other more pressing needs, Bowers might be a luxury the Colts cannot afford in this draft. Similarly, there are a few edge rushers and the Coltscould use a little more impact there….but they have invested a lot of day 2 picks over the Ballard era and have yet to find a single impactful player; what are the odds they could do it with this stab. They are better off adding to those positions with depth in later rounds, or maybe using the cap space to go after proven veterans that fit the needs.

The Colts just have their own selections through the entire 2024 draft, resting between the 14^th and 18^th pick in each round. The rest of the draft needs will need an infusion of depth and speed primarily after the top two starters are addressed in rounds 1-2. They definitely need an impact edge rusher, as right now they have a lot of bodies that have shown some flash but no consistency. With former high picks DE Dayo Odeyingbo and DE Kwity Paye coming up on contract decisions, they need to see continued upward trajectory or else depth will be needed after 2024 when they walk. I can see them using a boom-or-bust pick on an edge guy (like maybe from a small school, or undersized, or a physical freak as a project) in round 3 or more likely on Day 3. I would be shocked if they do not draft a pair of linemen in their seven picks as well -- likely one that is a physically gifted but raw guy that projects as a possible tackle, and one that is a versatile piece to shore up the bench. I think they will also use a day 3 pick on a running back as there is little depth there on the roster at the moment. Safety is still a big need with a very young unit, but they are more likely to address that via trade or free agency with a veteran presence to add to the corps. About the only things not on the table to be selected are specialists and quarterback as I see it, with linebacker being a low priority as well.

That is all for this month from the Crossroads of America. Enjoy the draft from my awesome hometown of the Motor City this week …and maybe enjoy some spring weather as well!

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