OTAs

Week Three

RB Jaleel McLaughlin continues to show growth in his second season and Payton’s vision for him is third-down change of pace running back. He is the closest running back to being a roster lock.

The quarterback competition is really a two man duel with steady Jarrett Stidham slightly ahead of the more exciting (potential of) Bo Nix.

RB Javonte Williams is better than last year, but he doesn’t have the fire in his eyes like he did before his injury.

WR Courtland Sutton’s absence from OTAs has given the other wide receivers a chance to show cased their talents. All of them have taken full advantage of their opportunity.

TE Greg Dulcich is running sprints on the incline while Lucas Krull continues to impress as a big target who can fly.

WR Marvin Mims has flashed his speed on long TD throws from both Stidham and Nix. If he has successfully expanded his route tree he could push Sutton for number one wide receiver.

WR Josh Reynolds is adjusting well to his new team and is catching the ball away from his body which should help his drop problem.

S JL Skinner is a player to watch when the pads come on through pre-season.

OLB Baron Browning is the Broncos best pass rusher.

S P.J. Locke is the longest tenured Broncos defensive player and is stepping up as the secondary and team leader.

DT Malcolm Roach and DE John Franklin-Myers are keys to a revamped run defense.

WR Michael Bandy is a small receiver who is making his case for the 53-man roster.

Mandatory Mini-Camp

Entering mini-camp, QB Zack Wilson clearly needs more rehab time as a quarterback three or practice squad player in order to rebuild his confidence and resurrect his career. QB Bo Nix appears to learn fast and doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. Steady QB Jarrett Stidham will not back down for the arguably more talented duo. WR Courtland Sutton will be there and everyone's focus will be on the chemistry he develops with the quarterbacks, (especially, Bo Nix) and his ability to run precise slants like former Saints Colston and Thomas.

Sleepers to watch going forward: TE Lucas Krull; S JL Skinner; WR Michael Bandy.

WR Courtland Sutton was a limited participant (off season ankle surgery) at camp but made no promises to attend training camp. Sutton was obviously rusty while other receivers were sharp.

WR Tim Patrick look the best he has looked in the off season. He is running precise routes with sharp cuts. He is catching everything, adding yards after the catch. He still has a hitch in his straight line speed.

OLB Jonah Elliss has dominated the second and third team players with his hand placement and great first step.

CB Riley Moss continues to shine as he plays both outside and inside cornerback.

CB Ja’Quan McMillian is making his case to be more than just a slot corner.

ILB Levelle Bailey is a strong sleeper to make the 53-man roster as an inside linebacker and as a contributor on special teams.

WR Tory Franklin looks good but has a ways to go to distance himself from the rest of the second tier receivers.

QB Jarrett Stidham played with the first teamers. He looks confident, decisive and comfortable. Stidham is stepping up in the pocket to extend plays but is relatively immobile.

QB Bo Nix played with the third team and also looked confident, decisive and comfortable. Nix is changing plays at the line of scrimmage, going through his progressions and hitting any open receiver. Like Stidham, he extends plays by stepping up in the pocket keeping his eyes focused down field focusing on beating the defense with his arm. Unlike Stidham, he has the wheels to run if needed.

S Caden Sterns and S Brandon Jones still are not practicing in full.

WR Josh Reynolds is adjusting well and isn’t dropping passes.

WR David Sills has looked good and his size (6’3) will help him in the competition with the smaller players, like Michael Bandy, who is also looking good but is only 5’10.

The offensive line should be better than last year with C Alex Forsyth the only new player.

The defensive line is much improved and has better depth than last year.

The defensive backfield is young with a lot of upside.

Sean Payton felt that the Broncos accomplished a lot in their spring practices, including the first two days of mini camp, and so he canceled day three.

QB Jarrett Stidham will hold workouts in the Dallas area at some point after July 4. The workouts will include the quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends. Courtland Sutton will be there which is a hopeful sign that he will back with Denver for the 2024 season.

In Sean We Trust

This is not a unanimous mantra in Broncos country even though Sean Payton has an impressive resume. But is his success in New Orleans germane? Payton had plenty of seven and eight-win seasons with Drew Brees. His Super Bowl victory (2009) was followed by a lot of mediocrity (5-7 playoff record). Plus, his first season in Denver was in many ways a disaster, including a lot of personal missteps. However, none of that will matter if Nix hits. But Payton has never taken a rookie quarterback and turned him into a star. Payton inherited a declining Bronco team which was in disarray and is rebuilding it in his image, with his players and his coaches. Some "homers" have faith (blind?). I believe Bo Nix can be a viable NFL starting quarterback. It remains to be seen if that will be enough. This season is all about seeing if Nix is the future. If he is, Payton will be validated. If Nix isn’t the future, Payton will survive but others will be gone.

Transactions

Signed free-agent LB Andre Smith. Signed OLB Dondrea Tillman (3-years). Waived ILB Alec Mock. Added David Shaw (Stanford) as Senior Personnel Executive.

Training Camp The Denver Broncos rookies report for camp on July 17th and the veterans report on July 23rd. The Broncos will have 16 practices open to the fans which is the third most in the NFL. The Broncos do not charge admission or for parking for the open practices (most NFL teams do). The Broncos will continue to use its free mobile ticketing system that it started last ear. Two top dates in training camp are: Back Together Weekend on Saturday, July 27, and a joint practice with the Green Bay Packers on Friday, Aug. 16. Practices will include appearances from player alumni and mascots and even Thunder and face painting on select days, with player autographs, food trucks and free water. Players needing a big training camp: ILB Cody Barton; C Luke Wattenberg; WR Courtland Sutton; RB Javonte Williams; QB Zack Wilson.

BRONCOS OPEN TRAINING CAMP DATES All practices are 10 am MDT except Aug. 9 @ 12pm MDT

Friday, July 26

Saturday, July 27 ("Back Together Weekend" event)

Monday, July 29

Tuesday, July 30

Wednesday, July 31

Thursday, August 1

Friday, August 2

Saturday, August 3

Monday, August 5

Tuesday, August 6

Wednesday, August 7

Thursday, August 8

Friday, August 9 (12pm MDT)

Wednesday, August 14

Thursday, August 15

Friday, August 16 (joint practice with Packers)

The longest break — four days, from Aug. 10-13 — is around the team’s Aug. 11 preseason opener at Indianapolis. Tickets will be available to the general public beginning Thursday morning at Ticketmaster on a first-come, first-serve basis, but season-ticket holders can claim their tickets immediately.

Defense against Nix/Stidham Defensive coordinators will likely employ complex coverage schemes to force Denver’s quarterback (Stidham, Nix, even Wilson) to hold onto the ball longer and make deeper, more challenging throws. They will use a lot of disguised coverages and pre-snap movement from safeties and linebackers to confuse the quarterback into making risky throws. The defenses will also (likely) increase their front-seven pressure to pursue sacks and limit the quarterback’s time in the pocket in order to stop the quick-release aspect of Payton's offense. They will also use frequent shifts in defensive alignments to disguise what they will do until the last possible second, hoping to stop Payton's scripted plays and confuse the quarterback.

Payton’s Offense Payton is a Bill Parcells disciple and that is the type team he is building in Denver. He favors a power-gap running game and he emphasizes quick releases, short passes, and low sack rates, thus Denver’s offensive strategy will focus on efficiency and the short-passing game. Payton’s pass game guru is Bill Walsh and his WCO passing game with quick, often horizontal, high percentage passes. He tweaks his offense to put his players in advantageous positions based based on what his players skill sets are. Payton knows what schemes will allow him to optimize his player’s skills. What Payton needs is a 1) a quarterback who is an extension of himself, 2) a tall, physical pass catcher that can attack the deep seams, 3) pass catching running backs, 4) high quality O-linemen, and 5) an above-average run blocking receiver with the ability to blow the top off of a defense. His strategy is to exploit a defense through patience and timing. He will run a ton of offensive formations and shifts with different personnel in order to create mismatches against smaller or slower defenders. Paton’s offense relies on underneath routes and the running game to draw defenses in before beating them down field. Payton's offense isn't based entirely around a mismatch game. Almost every time the QB lines up under center, he is either running play action or handing it off which causes defenses to freeze at the line of scrimmage. His QB must be good at reading the defense from under center. Payton will use swings and screens in order to get an RB out of the backfield but prefers a more traditional running game. Payton’s complicated offense succeeds when one, he and the quarterback have great chemistry and second, when everyone is in a new position on every snap.

Defense

One of the major issues for Denver is the defense. Vance Joseph had to start the 2023 season that he was unfamiliar with which was a disaster. Switching to his preferred style helped some, but injuries and player talent levels still didn’t produced the desired results. It remains to be seen exactly what form the defense will take in 2024. It is a widely held opinion that Joseph is a placeholder and will be replaced by Payton cohort DB/pass game coach Jim Leonhard. What ever happens coaching wise, the defense will be reliant on new veteran players and inexperienced and/or rookie players. There have been flashes by some players in OTAs but until the pads go on it is hard to know what the defense will look like and how they will perform. However, it is safe to say there will be growing pains that will lead to better things in 2025. On a positive note, the revamped defensive line will not be a sieve for opponents running backs and their push will help the linebackers as well as the secondary. Special teams

There is a lot of talk about the new kickoff rules. Payton says that there will be more touchdowns because of the new (XFL) rules. However, the XFL kickoff rules did not result in a higher rate of touchdowns on KORs or long (> 50yd) KORs relative to the NFL, but definitely led to a huge increase in the percentage of kickoffs returned.

K Justin Tucker (Ravens) is bulking up and doing tackle drills for the first time since high school because in XFL games kickers have been involved in 20- 25 percent of the tackles with the revamped kickoff play.

The new rules create more circumstances where the actual kicker will legitimately be the last line of defense on a play. They will also impact the construction of the back end of the team’s roster. It will be interesting to see what the effects are on Denver’s personnel decisions.

Orangeman’s Take

This team has a lot of youth-infused energy, spurred by Jaleel McLaughlin, that has infected even Sean Payton and veterans like Samaje Perine. Hopefully, that will sustain them when they hit the regular season and the adversity it will bring. The Broncos were able to land guys they had higher grades on at every juncture of the 2023 draft.

There has been a lot of real competition that has resulted in a real bonding across the entire team which should hold them in good stead. New leaders are emerging to replace those that have left. There is an optimism about the season setting a foundation for a bright 2025 and beyond.

Fantasy outlook

I’m not high on any of the Broncos for fantasy this year because there are just too many unknowns. This year is all about seeing if Nix is a franchise quarterback and which current players will take the ride with him. RB Jaleel McLaughlin has added some muscle and should have a bigger role (10-15 touches) and could emerge as the best Broncos running back. Likewise, WR Marvin Mims, Jr. could emerge as the Broncos top wide receiver. WR Josh Reynolds should become the team’s primary chain mover if WR Tim Patrick is not 100% and is solid insurance if any of the top three falter. Personally, I really like TE Lucas Krull as the teams deep seam threat and top breakout candidate. He is attending the Tight End University three day program of Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Greg Olsen.

Regardless of who is quarterbacking the team, the Broncos will have to run the ball a lot. The offensive line was a good run blocking unit last year and should be again this year. But the running back room is a question mark because of Javonte Williams. Unless Williams finds the fire he has lost, the Broncos will need to bite the bullet and move ahead with McLaughlin, Samaje Perine or Williams and the rookies. McLaughlin could then be the lead back with Perine or Williams being the "power change of pace back/closer".

Both Stidham and Nix have been spreading the ball around to their deep receiving corp. Both Sutton and Patrick are aging veterans and it remains to be seen if Payton fully embraces the youth and goes with the youngsters who can grow with Nix. It would be hard to see Patrick and/or Sutton leave, but Sutton could give Denver some draft capital for next year. I believe a healthy Patrick could make Sutton superfluous.

Payton wants to win now and build for the future. My fear is he will win just enough to cost Denver a prime draft spot like happened in 2023.. I would like to see him go "all in" on his young offensive skill players.

End.