The NFL made about $13B in 2023. It increased the payouts to each team between 6 & 8% over the 2022 payout. The payouts to the team are almost double the 2023 salary cap. (Sportico/kurt Badenhausen).

l We've been hearing about how bad the Broncos will be in 2024. Payton, however, is visibly excited about his team this off season. He is very confident and the Broncos will surprise a lot of people this season. Payton’s new found enthusiasm is likely because of his faith in QB Bo Nix. His view is that Nix loves the game and enjoys the process of getting better. He especially likes that Nix is a quick processor who gets the ball out quickly with accuracy and good ball placement while avoiding sacks. Plus, he will do exactly what Payton asks him to do.

l Nix was drafted to be the quarterback that Denver has long sought, and Payton needs to follow his gut and start him immediately. There will be growing pains, but Nix seldom makes the same mistake twice. Nix needs to adjust to the speed and nuances of the NFL game. The only way to do that quickly is to play.

l Some Broncos on short term contracts are among the twenty-six Broncos that could become unrestricted free agents next year. The Broncos who are the most likely to get massive new deals in 2025 are CB Pat Surtain II and OLB/Edge Rusher Barron Browning. Surtain isn’t urgent because of his fifth year option, but he is the Broncos only recent All-Pro and needs to be extended. Browning is in his contract year and needs to prove he is worth a big new contract. The big question is what they will do about LOT Garett Bolles who is also a UFA in 2025.

l There will be intense competition for a spot in the running back room. Javonte Williams and Audric Estime like to run over defenders. Williams isn’t totally back from his devastating injury while Estime, who has better vision and runs to daylight, is also returning after a "small scope" which determined there is no serious damage to his knee. Williams hasn’t regained his burst and Estime is a battering ram with 4.7 speed. However, Williams lost weight and looks more like is old self in the "acclimation days" of training camp. Jaleel McLaughlin and Blake Watson are similar backs. McLaughlin is known for his quickness, burst, speed and explosiveness. Watson is a versatile back who is experienced returning kicks and operating in the passing game. Pass protection will be a big part of their competition. There is a definite possibility that Denver could field a matched pair of "thunder and lightening" backs: Williams and McLaughlin and Estime and Watson (NFI- active/return any time/counts against the 90 man roster). Watson has a slight muscle tweak and the Broncos made a procedural move. Javonte Williams has a real battle on his hands with Audric Estime, but he is a solid target if you wait to draft running backs (take both).

l Overall, there are a lot of questions about this Bronco team, but there is a lot to like. First, they have a quarterback that is their future. Second, they have a good although not great offensive line. Third, they have solid defensive linemen who have the potential to gel into a very good line. Fourth, they have a deep, talented wide receiver group that may not instill fear in the defense, but will produce the desired results. Fifth, the tight ends are viewed as a weakness, and Adam Trautman needs to improve his blocking and receiving over 2023’s performance. Greg Dulcich must stay healthy to make the roster. There is a big, fast target in Lucas Krull will challenge both and is a top sleeper for Denver. Last, they have a great offensive play caller in Sean Payton.

l Explosive offensive plays are imperative in today's NFL. The Broncos haven’t had that kind of offensive threat for umpteen years. WR Troy Franklin could become that threat and is being coached hard. He has long legs that that give him game breaking speed. His footwork gives him multiple releases from the line of scrimmage. Franklin displays balance, body lean, acceleration and deceleration, and toe-tapping ability on his comeback routes. He gains separation through his route running although there is some inconsistency in his route running. There is one concern about Franklin-drops! It will be wide receiver’s coach Keary Colbert’s job to fix that, but Payton likes Franklin’s football IQ.

l The Denver Bronco pass rush in 2023 was in the bottom half of the league in sacks. For overall pressure, they were completely average. To improve this year, they need someone (Barron Browning) at edge to take a big step forward.

l DC Vance Joseph began 2023 playing a defense he’d never played, before. He was finally able to use a simplified version (hurt by injuries) of his defense in 2023. For 2024, he has further simplified his attacking defense with only a few calls. His defensive players are more comfortable and will play faster this season. Only time will tell if it will save Joseph’s job. He needs ILB Alex Singleton to be more reliable, at tackling in the run game, as well as, better in coverage.

l QB Bo Nix has clear chemistry with TE Lucas Krull and WR Devaughn Vele. Krull will become the number one tight end during the season and WRs Troy Franklin and Tim Patrick will push for significant playing time.

l Nix attended Stidham’s July workouts, QB Zack Wilson did not.

l The best part of Nix’s game is his accuracy and proven pass placement as he leads his receivers for yards after the catch (YAC). Nix is not only a solid runner but he’s also an accurate passer while throwing on the run.

l WR Courtland Sutton participated with other Broncos players in workout sessions at Texas Christian University in Fort Worth starting on July 9th. He now has an additional $1.5M in incentives that could make this season worth $15.2M.

l The primary focus of improvement for DC Vance Joseph’s defense: 1) starting fast (coaching and playing better) and 2) the run defense holding the point and changing the line of scrimmage.

l Players on the rise entering training camp: WR Josh Reynolds; TE Lucas Krull; S PJ Locke; CB Ja'Quan McMillian; RB Jaleel McLaughlin.

l Players needing a great camp entering training camp: QB Zack Wilson; RB Javonte Williams; TE Greg Dulcich; All Safeties not named Locke; P Riley Dixon; C Sam Mustipher.

l Signed G Quinn Meinerz to $80M contract with $45M guaranteed.

l WR Troy Franklin sits at the top of Denver's receiver depth and is in line for 400-650 receiving yards. WR Jalen Virgil Virgil is a dynamic deep threat. WR Devaughn Vele has years of experience in college football and the versatility to play special teams and various ways on offense.

l Active/PUP list: LB Drew Sanders (Achilles), S Caden Stearns (patellar tendon), and S Delarrin Turner-Yell (ACL).

l Dulcich seems to have his burst back and now needs to stay healthy. He continues to shine and if healthy he’s a game-changer for the Denver Broncos' offense.

l UFA’s with the best chance to make the 53-man roster: OT Frank Crum, RB Blake Watson ILB Levelle Bailey and S Omar Brown.

l The Broncos need an edge on special teams and Marvin Mims is being looked at to provide it. He knows he will have to handle low, line drive kickoffs like an infielder.

l All three quarterbacks have looked good in 7 on 7 drills but had their issues in team drills during the pre-pads period of training camp.

l WRs Michael Bandy and Davis Sills will not go away.

l The team’s weakness at safety is becoming a real concern as Brandon Jones continues to miss time with injuries (hamstring/out 1-2 weeks) and no clear, reliable option to replace him.

l S Caden Sterns has returned from the PUP list. The Broncos hope he is the long-term answer for replacing Justin Simmons.

l Edge rusher Thomas Incoom continues to pressure the quarterback while Nik Bonitto continues to work on a side field.

l QB Bo Nix is rising while QB Jarrett Stidham is playing it safe.

l CB Levi Wallace is making his case to be CB2.

l QB Bo Nix got the first reps with the ones when pads came on. The Broncos people "on the ground" believe that Nix is their quarterback.

l C Luke Wattenberg leads the center battle. Now he must hold it with the pads on.

l The Broncos need safety depth and are working out Justin Sutherland and Nico Bolden.

l WR Josh Reynolds has a skill set that Sean Payton appreciates and he's been consistent with no drops, regardless of the quarterback. Payton also likes that he can block and has an upbeat attitude and mindset.

l The defense defeated the offense on the first day in pads. Rookie CB Kris Abrams-Draine stood out along with a dominating defensive linemen Zach Allen, John Franklin-Myers and edge rusher Baron Browning.

l QB Bo Nix displayed his running ability and good decision making. ROT Mike McGlinchey: "He’s learned fast on the job. and he’s a very competitive dude and he takes a lot of pride in not screwing things up — or if he does once, he’s not going to do it again." Look for RPOs, zone reads, and designed quarterback runs in the offense, especially in the red zone for Nix.

l The second day in pads was better for the offense and featured the run game with Williams and Estime. McLaughlin is the third down back but is still struggling with pass protection.

l Jaylon Allen, Thomas Incoom and Zach Allen generated the defensive pressure. Angelo Blackson received the first team reps with John Franklin-Myers’ out (death in family).

l Stidham had two passes batted down at the line of scrimmage. Nix has one sack and one batted ball. The race is close, but Nix should get the nod over Stidham.

l Swing 0T Quinn Bailey (6th lineman) fractured his right ankle.

l QB Bo Nix and WR Josh Reynolds were stand outs in the third day of padded practice. Payton on Nix: " He ran with the ones and I like his progress."

l First week of training camp standouts: RBs Javonte Williams and Audric Estime; TE Greg Dulcich and the defensive line; and, LB Jonas Griffith and WR Josh Reynolds.

l Denver’s starters will play in the pre-season but Payton will weigh their reps.

l McLaughlin has delivered multiple explosive runs in the last three days of July.

l After three straight days in pads, Denver will do a day in shells before wearing pads again.

Sean Payton’s Offense Sean Payton’s offense is designed to be both efficient and explosive, making it difficult for defenses to predict and stop. The offense relies on short, quick passes to control the ball and maintain possession (WCO). Payton adds vertical passing elements to the WCO in order to use every part of the field to create pressure, mismatches and big-play opportunities. Someone almost always is schemed open so the Quarterback must find the open man and move the chains. Payton uses a flexible run game (power and zone) depending on the defense’s alignment. His running backs are also heavily involved in the passing game. Two important ingredients of the offense are: 1) play action passes to keep defenses honest and open passing lanes; and, 2) misdirection to confuse the defense and create opportunities for big plays. Payton’s game plans are opponent specific to exploit the defense’s weaknesses with the offense often looking different from week-to-week. His weekly adjustments are designed to maximize his player’s potential and effectiveness. However, is overall game plane is designed to mitigate disasters, meaning he won’t attack weakness in a way that makes his teams weakness exploitable.

Orangeman’s Take

Payton’s offenses have consistently ranked among the top in the league in yardage and scoring, as well as often leading the league in passing yards and touchdowns. Payton has upgraded the Broncos at least on paper. It will be an exciting season for the Broncos, but success may not be determined by wins. It will be interesting to see how much the youth movement will influence roster construction. Will Payton go against his tendency to go with veterans and totally go young to season them for 2025 and beyond? Who will make the roster and which veterans will be gone?

The Broncos have four young players they need to put in a position to make plays: Marvin Mims, Jaleel McLaughlin, Blake Watson and Troy Franklin. People view Sean Payton’s resume as impressive. But he hasn’t accomplished anything in Denver. 2023 was a collection of miss-steps: a 70-20 loss; sideline arguments with his QB; mismanaged timeouts; calling the wrong play because he couldn’t read his play sheet; and, other unusual happenings. 2024 is put up or shut up time.

Fantasy Outlook

The relationship between NFL teams and fantasy football performance isn’t straight forward. Fantasy football is a blend of individual talent, team context, and opportunity. There some trends that are useful like high scoring offenses tend to produce better fantasy options. The players on those offense tend to produce fantasy results for the quarterbacks and wide receivers with tight ends tied to their quarterbacks success. Running backs are team dependent on the offensive line play and goal line opportunities. Consistency, volume, and efficiency in targets, air yards, yards per route run, and red zone opportunities are crucial. Fortunately, Mike handles that for us as we try to draft well and adapt wisely during the season. Payton’s offense and play calling ability leads to high hopes for the Broncos offense. But what players will make up the offense? Who will lead fantasy production for the Broncos? How high? Denver will likely be a conservative, run-leaning offense in 2024.

So, here’s a homers take with pre-camp roster assumptions (not the roster I want!).

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